Japan’s SoftBank Group is expected to report a solid profit linked to its investment in OpenAI when it releases quarterly earnings on Thursday, with investor attention increasingly centered on how the group plans to finance its expanding artificial intelligence ambitions. SoftBank’s deepening exposure to OpenAI comes as the ChatGPT maker continues to strike multi-billion-dollar agreements despite remaining loss-making, prompting growing concern among investors about how those commitments will be funded. This has weighed on sentiment toward major technology companies closely associated with OpenAI, including SoftBank.
The Japanese conglomerate invested more than $30 billion in OpenAI in 2025, raising its ownership stake to approximately 11%. It is also in discussions to invest an additional amount of up to $30 billion in OpenAI’s latest funding round, Reuters reported last month.
As a result of this significant exposure, SoftBank is increasingly viewed by the market as a publicly listed proxy for OpenAI. Analysts have highlighted rising concentration risk and potential implications for SoftBank’s financial position should OpenAI require further large-scale funding.
“The reality for SoftBank shareholders at the moment is that their fortune is tied with OpenAI,” said Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor and infrastructure research at Futurum Equities. “Even if they do another $50 billion round they are going to require more funding in the coming years. The likes of Amazon and Google are spending well in excess of $100 billion per year in capex,” he said.
SoftBank’s aggressive commitment to OpenAI is consistent with the long-standing investment approach of founder and Chief Executive Masayoshi Son, who has historically favored concentrated, high-conviction bets on companies that are still in the early stages of profitability. Although OpenAI’s most recent funding rounds have been completed at progressively higher valuations, any gains for investors remain unrealized for now.
According to an estimate by BTIG analyst Jesse Sobelson, SoftBank is expected to record an investment gain of $4.45 billion from the $22.5 billion OpenAI investment tranche that was completed in December.
Looking ahead to the quarterly results, five analysts surveyed by LSEG forecast net income ranging widely, from a profit of 1.1 trillion yen ($7.07 billion) to a loss of 480 billion yen, reflecting uncertainty over valuation gains and the broader impact of SoftBank’s AI-focused investment strategy.
