As tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate, the latest Rubix Country Insights—China report from Rubix Data Sciences offers a timely and in-depth analysis of China’s economic realignments in the face of growing trade protectionism and geopolitical volatility.
In 2024, China’s exports to the United States were nearly three times higher than its imports, creating a massive trade imbalance. In response, on April 2, 2025, the US announced a blanket 54% tariff on all Chinese imports. China retaliated on April 4 with 34% additional tariffs on all American goods. Escalating further, the US imposed an additional 50% tariff on April 8, taking the total levies on Chinese imports to a staggering 104%. China then slapped an additional 50% tariff on US imports, effective April 10, 2025, prompting yet another tariff hike from the US. The total US tariff on Chinese goods now stands at 125%, while China’s total tariff on US imports has reached 84. This tit-for-tat tariff war has once again brought global attention to China’s evolving trade strategy and its ability to maintain stability despite intensifying economic pressure from the West.
According to the report, China’s economic engine remains resilient. The country recorded an estimated 5% GDP growth in 2024, powered by targeted stimulus measures, strong manufacturing output, and a balanced foreign trade performance. More notably, China’s trade surplus has doubled over the past five years, crossing the USD 1 trillion mark in 2024. This significant milestone underlines China’s deepening trade ties with alternative markets, especially nations aligned with its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
For the first time, in 2024, over 50% of China’s total foreign trade value came from BRI countries. This signals a deliberate shift away from reliance on Western economies, reinforcing China’s long-term strategy to strengthen its influence across Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe.
China is also signalling openness in manufacturing. It has lifted all restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector, hoping to revive inflows and bolster domestic capabilities. Furthermore, with deflationary pressures mounting—consumer price inflation turned negative in early 2025 and producer prices have remained deflationary for over two years—China’s leadership is now betting on boosting domestic consumption as the cornerstone of future growth.
Meanwhile, the India-China trade equation presents a tale of imbalance. India’s imports from China grew at a rapid 11.7% CAGR between FY2020 and FY2024, surpassing the USD 100 billion mark in FY2024. In sharp contrast, India’s exports to China remained stagnant, growing at a marginal 0.1% CAGR over the same period. This growing trade deficit is compounded by India’s strategic move to restrict Chinese investments, resulting in China’s FDI ranking in India dropping from 18th in 2020 to 23rd in 2024.
Commenting on the findings, Mohan Ramaswamy, Co-Founder and CEO of Rubix Data Sciences, said, “China’s economic signals are increasingly complex and layered. As the world’s second-largest economy navigates trade friction and internal restructuring, it becomes essential to look beyond surface-level indicators. This report enables a more strategic understanding of China’s evolving business and trade environment amidst one of the most consequential tariff battles of our time.”
The Rubix Country Insights—China report offers a 360-degree view of China’s macroeconomic health, insolvency risks, governance framework, political climate, and global trade position. With growing volatility in international trade policy, Rubix Data Sciences remains committed to equipping decision-makers with timely intelligence that drives informed action.
