IBM and NASA have jointly introduced Surya, an open-source AI model designed to forecast solar weather with unmatched precision. Now available on Hugging Face, Surya uses nine years of data from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory to predict solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — powerful events that can disrupt satellites, power grids, telecommunications, and aviation systems worldwide.
“Think of this as a weather forecast for space,” said Dr. Juan Bernabe Moreno, Director of IBM Research Europe, UK and Ireland. The model marks a major advancement in heliophysics, improving solar flare classification accuracy by 16% compared to previous approaches. For the first time, it also introduces the ability to visually forecast flare locations up to two hours before they occur.
Highlighting the breakthrough, Kevin M., NASA’s Chief Science Data Officer, noted: “By developing a foundation model trained on NASA’s heliophysics data, we’re making it easier to analyse the complexities of the Sun’s behaviour with unprecedented speed and precision.”
Surya was developed using the largest curated heliophysics dataset ever assembled, enabling both scientific and practical applications. Beyond advancing academic research, the model is poised to help industries highly vulnerable to solar activity — from satellite communications and aviation to agriculture and energy infrastructure. With risks from severe solar storms estimated by Lloyd’s to cost the global economy as much as $17 billion, the stakes are high.
This release extends the IBM–NASA collaboration, which previously resulted in Prithvi, an AI-driven project focused on geospatial and weather data analysis. Together, the initiatives underscore how AI and open-source platforms can transform humanity’s ability to monitor and mitigate risks from natural forces that were once considered unpredictable.
By combining cutting-edge machine learning with NASA’s rich archive of solar observations, Surya not only strengthens preparedness against potential disruptions but also enhances humanity’s understanding of the Sun’s dynamic behavior. The model’s open-source availability ensures that researchers, developers, and industries worldwide can build upon its capabilities, making solar storm forecasting a collective effort in safeguarding critical systems and infrastructure.
