India’s online food delivery market to cross Rs 2 lakh crore by 2030

India’s online food delivery market is growing at an annual rate of 18 percent and is projected to surpass Rs 2 lakh crore by 2030, according to a report by IPO-bound Swiggy and management consulting firm Bain.

The food services market in India, which includes dining out and ordering in, is currently valued at Rs 5.5 lakh crore, the report stated. This market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 10-12% over the next seven years, reaching Rs 9-10 lakh crore by 2030. However, the average spend per order will see only a slight increase, rising from Rs 220-240 in CY23 to Rs 230-250 in CY30.

This growth will be driven by strong fundamentals, such as an expanding customer base, increasing consumption occasions, and a rise in supply. Additionally, online food delivery is expected to grow faster at around 18 percent CAGR, contributing 20 percent to the overall food services market by 2030, according to the report.

For example, China has four times the number of restaurants per million urban population compared to India. This study highlights the potential for growth and suggests that the Indian food service market catering to middle- and higher-income segments will expand from Rs 4-5 lakh crore currently to about Rs 10 lakh crore by 2030,” said Rohit Kapoor, CEO, Food Marketplace, Swiggy. “Looking toward the next decade, with an estimated growth rate of 10-12 percent annually, exciting opportunities are on both the demand and supply fronts. By 2030, the market is poised to serve an additional 110 million customers, gradually shifting eating out from a special event to a convenient lifestyle,” said Navneet Chahal, Partner and co-author of the report.

The report noted that the addressable customer base for the Indian food services market is expected to expand by 110 million, growing from the current 320-340 million to approximately 430-450 million by 2030. This increase will be supported by macroeconomic factors including rapid urbanization and rising affluence.

The report highlighted that eating out is currently a special event for Indian consumers, occurring an average of 5 times per month, and this frequency is expected to increase to 7-8 times by 2030. This shift will transform the perception of eating out from special occasions to a matter of convenience, with new occasions (e.g., mid-meal dayparts) and greater access (expansion of organized supply, food delivery growth).

This trend mirrors developed markets like the US and China, where eating out is convenience-led and the monthly frequency is 25-30 times, indicating significant potential for growth in India.

 

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